Pendekatan Stokastik dalam Kajian Kelayakan Pembangunan Jalan Tol Studi Kasus Rencana Ruas Tol Kandis - Dumai

Abstract

The Kandis - Dumai toll road is designed at a second phase of Pekanbaru-Kandis-Dumai toll road development plan. Construction of toll road projects require highcapital outlays with a long payback period. In addition, from a business perspec-tive, the toll road construction project has a sensitive and vulnerable to risk anduncertainty characters. Investment feasibility assessment methods commonly usedare as follow : a) Net Present Value, b) Internal Rate of Return, c) Average Rate ofReturn, and d) Payback Period. Those parameters use a deterministic approach willyield result of single point estimate value. The results are considered to yield a ver ylimited information and do not represent risks and uncertainties that may be en-countered as the reality of the investment itself. For investors, business strategydecisions with minimal information which is of course very risky. This study ana-lyzed using stochastic approach to find the sensitivity level of the variables thatinfluence (risk), as an effort to provide more comprehensive information in relationto decision making at the level of confidence. The analysis was done by using his-torical data for some risk variables, expert opinions, and results of previous studies.Results of analysis with a stochastic approach showed that with 35 years conces-sion period and the tariffs of vehicle Class I is Rp. 490/Km, Kandis-Dumai tollroad financially feasible. Based on the results of research on risk variables showedthat the variables that are very sensitive and influential in a row are: 1) Bank Indo-nesia Certificates (SBI), 2) Inflation, and 3) volume of vehicles Class III, IV, andV.